Friday, March 15, 2013

The Songs of Early Birds

I've found most of the recent OCD-talk about Hillary 2016 to be extremely premature (and an unnecessary distraction from the 2014 midterms). The best way to make sure the next president is a Democrat is doing everything we can to give the current President a successful second-term.

But Nate Silver looks at the past performance of early polling at about this point before an election:

"An examination of pre-midterm presidential polling since 1984 — surveys conducted from the day after the preceding presidential vote to the day before the midterm elections — shows that while early primary polls are not determinative, they are not meaningless, either."

More here.

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